Monday 18 February 2013

Flower Power!

Fueled by speculative competition for futures contracts, Tulip Mania gripped the Netherlands in 1630’s leading to mind-boggling price levels.  Mackay (1841) puts this in context by stating that in 1635 forty bulbs fetched 100,000 florins, compared with just 100 florins for 1 ton of butter!  Interestingly, Roubini and Mihm (2011) in their book "Crisis Economics" emphasize the timeliness this asset bubble had with “the emergence of the Netherlands as the world’s first capitalist dynamo in the sixteenth and seventeenth centuries”, and so point to the roots of financial speculation in the emergence of free-market capitalism.  Notably, Garber (1989) (a prominent commentator on the subject) suggests that this should not be considered as a case of irrational exuberance, as flower bulbs are prone to such pricing behavior.  The figure below demonstrates this ‘Tulip Mania’ graphically.  

Tulip Mania (1636-1637)

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